While macro sentiment remains constructive, fading speculative momentum and rising unrealized gains point to greater sensitivity to downside risk. Read more in our weekly Market Pulse.
Overview
Following last week’s rally toward $97K, market signals are beginning to show signs of cooling. Spot market momentum has softened, with Spot CVD turning sharply negative and daily volume dropping back to $6B, suggesting diminished buy-side conviction.
Similarly, perpetual futures experienced a dramatic unwind, with CVD and funding rates retreating from extremes, highlighting waning short-side aggression but little follow-through from long participants.
ETF flows, while still net positive, have eased from peak levels. Options markets reflect reduced speculative appetite, with falling open interest and deeply negative volatility spreads. Meanwhile, on-chain indicators point to elevated profitability: Percent Supply in
Profit is now at 88%, NUPL remains steady at 0.53, and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has spiked to 2.38. All signaling that a significant portion of the market is in the money and may be tempted to realize gains.
Overall, conditions point to a market at risk of near-term profit-taking. While macro sentiment remains constructive, the cooling of speculative momentum in spot and derivatives markets, combined with rising unrealized gains, suggests increased sensitivity to any downside catalysts.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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