TLDR:
- Bitcoin indicators, Tenkan Sen and Kumo, turned bullish, but Kijun Sen remains flat and downward facing.
- A breakout above $110.6K by July 4 could trigger a bullish Kijun Sen flip and cloud exit.
- Time theory suggests Henka-Bi may appear between July 2–4, signaling trend change or continuation.
- BTC/EUR lags BTC/USD, raising doubts unless euro pair or EUR/USD rally confirms broader strength.
Bitcoin’s recent chart activity has put traders in a cautious stance as mixed technical signals emerge across multiple timeframes.
The price of BTC has shown resilience, but clear confirmation of a trend remains elusive. Analysts are watching closely as the cryptocurrency nears significant dates that could define its next direction. While the daily chart attempts a bullish shift, conditions remain uncertain.
Traders remain alert for breakout confirmation and potential reversal.
According to crypto analyst Dr Cat, Bitcoin’s daily chart presents a complicated setup. Indicators like the Tenkan Sen and Kumo have flipped bullish, suggesting potential upside.
However, the Kijun Sen remains flat with its last direction pointing downward, which could cap bullish momentum.
The Chikou Span sits above the price candles, often a warning sign for short-term bearish pressure. At the same time, lower timeframes are not clearly bullish but continue to press upward in a zone that typically leads to rejection.
This creates a tight balance between risk and reward in the current structure.
$BTC Bitcoin
Pretty tricky situation on the daily because TK and the kumo flipped bullish but Kijun Sen is still flat and its last turn is to the downside which is not bullish.
CS is above the candles which is always a danger for bears.
In the same time, MTF/LTF is obviously… https://t.co/T7wfknWxlv pic.twitter.com/rH9PNg7sYX
— Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX) July 2, 2025
Key Dates May Decide the Next Bitcoin Move
Dr Cat points out that if the June 9 high of $110.6K is surpassed by July 4, it could trigger a bullish Kijun Sen turn. This development, especially if BTC leaves the Kumo cloud, may strengthen the bullish case.
However, failure to reach this level could see the Chikou Span re-enter the candle cluster, weakening the bullish argument.
Between July 2 and July 4, time theory suggests a Henka-Bi candle may appear. Such formations often mark turning points or strong continuations. If a new high is made during this window, it may support a fresh rally.
If not, bears may gain control.
Another concern lies with the future Senkou Span B. If a new all-time high is not reached within 12 to 13 days, this key indicator will slope downward. That would pose a notable risk to the bullish structure.
Meanwhile, the weekly chart must close above the all-time high by July 21 to avoid turning neutral.
The two-day chart still shows the Tenkan Sen below the Kijun Sen. This suggests that even if bullish confirmation comes soon, it may take over a week to build a healthy uptrend.
BTC/USD vs BTC/EUR Raises Doubts
Dr Cat also notes that BTC/EUR is underperforming compared to BTC/USD.
For Bitcoin to make a sharp upward move, either the euro pair must mirror the strength or EUR/USD must surge. Given that EUR/USD sits in a major resistance zone and is already 2.5% below its yearly high, the scenario appears unlikely.
Bitcoin’s current price, as per CoinGecko, stands at $109,537 with a 3.49% gain over 24 hours. While short-term optimism builds, traders remain cautious until price action confirms a clearer trend.
