The market sits in a high-risk, not overheated, regime, marked by fading spot strength, elevated profitability, and steady but cautious participation across derivatives and ETFs. Without renewed demand from both retail and institutional investors, the current cooling momentum may persist.
Overview
After failing to sustain momentum above $111K, Bitcoin’s rally entered a cooling phase. Spot market signals weakened across the board, momentum fell back toward neutral, spot CVD turned sharply negative, and volume dipped below the statistical low band. These developments suggest softening retail participation and a retreat from aggressive buying.
Futures markets held steadier. Open interest remained near cycle highs, and long-side funding stayed positive, indicating patient positioning by leveraged traders. However, the sharp reversal in perpetual CVD suggests short-term traders may be trimming risk.
In options, implied volatility premiums remain elevated, with the volatility spread brushing against its high band. Meanwhile, delta skew flipped from call-heavy to mildly put-heavy, hinting at a subtle shift toward downside hedging after weeks of risk-on bias.
ETF flows rose sharply, reaffirming institutional demand, though trade volume declined, showing more passive accumulation than active trading. On-chain fundamentals remained neutral, with flat active addresses, moderate transfer volume, and falling fees, signaling subdued organic activity.
Liquidity metrics, including Hot Capital Share and Realized Cap Change, showed a slight pullback, consistent with a pause in capital rotation. The STH/LTH Supply Ratio fell below its statistical low band, highlighting a strong long-term holder presence.
Profitability metrics remain elevated. Nearly 97% of the supply is in profit, and realized profit-taking remains healthy. While not yet euphoric, this structure increases the risk of distribution if demand doesn’t return.
In sum, the market sits in a high-risk, not overheated, regime, marked by fading spot strength, elevated profitability, and steady but cautious participation across derivatives and ETFs. Without renewed demand from both retail and institutional investors, the current cooling momentum may persist.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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